Crane Brinton in his “Anatomy of a Revolution” from a case study of four examples, suggests a four stage process in revolutionary struggles – early symptoms, a rising fever, a crisis leading perhaps to a “Reign of Terror”, and a Thermidorian convalescence. This was certainly the case in the Iranian Revolution. To what degree is this happening in the Middle East today? Brinton suggests that revolutions typically begin with a rising popular awareness of "government deficits, more than usual complaints over taxation, conspicuous governmental favouring of one set of economic interests over another, administrative entanglements and confusions". This was certainly the case in Tunisia, which began with a protest by Mohamed Bouazizi a vegetable salesperson over heavy handed treatment by the police. It rapidly developed as a protest against high unemployment, inflation in food prices , a heavy handed response to demands for freedom of speech and falling living standards leading to poor living conditions, and it was exacerbated by Wikileaks revelations of the degree of government cronyism and corruption. Brinton wrote that there is a "loss of self-confidence among many members of the ruling class," the "conversion of many members of that class to the belief that their privileges are unjust or harmful to society” and this has been demonstrated by the conversion of many amongst the army and civilian governments in Libya to join sides with the protesters. Like in Russia, in Libya "at the critical moment ... soldiers refused to march against the people" and instead joined them.”
But Brinton’s thesis also shows how the early successes of moderates gets replaced quickly by the determination and better organisation of extremists. This is certainly what happened in Iran with the fall of the Shah. It offers a sanguinary lesson to how easily things could go wrong in the events sweeping Libya at the moment. A few early successes against the better armed mercenary forces currently being recruited en masse by Gaddafi, are hopeful signs, but what happens when the tide is turned and the revolutionaries suffer a major defeat. At such times, better organisation is called for, and the needs of fighting a war will call forth a superior military strategy and probably a strategist who can create it. Napoleon was created in this fashion, Trotski in his creation of the Red Army performed the same function for the Bolsheviks, the Revolutionary Army led by Washington was a similar result.
What will happen in Libya now? Clearly the parallel institutions established in Benghazi can take responsibility for dealing with civilian issues, but what of the military situation? Historically there are no known examples of armies that have been successfully led by committees. If we would see as positive an outcome in Libya as there seems to be in Tunis and Egypt, then what we need to see is the forces opposing Gaddafi have rapid and essentially peaceful victories over the less motivated, but better armed Gaddafi forces. A longer drawn out struggle will favour “the Man on Horseback” I spoke about in my last blog, who may later resist the demands of civilian democratic rule. A long military struggle will also help the Al Qaeda extremists who would seek to profit from the situation.
Where Brinton’s thesis falls down is that he fails to consider in his schema the examples of nonviolent revolutions that happened with People Power in the Philippines and with the fall of the communist regimes, led by multiclass coalitions in the former states of the iron curtain. One of the key examples of a nonviolent revolution in recent times has been the ending of the Apartheid regime in South Africa, in which the ANC, led by Mandella originally drew its inspiration from Gandhi’s satyagraha. The Velvet revolution in former Czechoslovakia offers another example of such a change. The cases of the “twitter revolutions” as they are being called in Tunisia and Egypt obviously have more in common with these “modern colour revolutions” of the former Soviet sphere than do those described by Brinton.
But what of Libya? El-Gamaty, one of many Libyan dissidents, lists the difficulties for the Libyan revolutionaries: “There is no organized, recognized opposition because the [Gaddafi] regime has a zero-tolerance policy. There are no civil society institutions, no trade unions, no freedom of expression, no free press, no dissent allowed.” Rapid building of such institutions is currently occurring in liberated areas, but such groups need financial and moral support. And what can we as private citizens do to support the Libyan people in their struggle? I would suggest the following
1. * Contact Libyan students or refugees living in your country and ask them how can you best help. At this stage medical aid seems a priority.
2. * The United Nations Humanitarian Commission for Refugees is gravely concerned over the situations for refugees in Tunisia and Egypt, countries that are themselves suffering at the moment. Offer help financially and personally to NGOs working in these regions.
3. * Campaign with local politicians for special foreign aid going to the People’s committees in Benghazi (as well as to Egypt and Tunisia) to help stabilise the economies in these areas.
4. * Keep yourself informed about what is really going on through the news media and various blogsites that are emerging, and spread the news widely through friends and colleagues.
Apart from these 4 it difficult at the moment for those that believe in the path of nonviolence to find constructive things to do. All we can demonstrate is that the path of peace is not “a way”, we must remember it is “the only way”.
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